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Is UNFCCC going the way of OPEC

Another milestone, another fanfare, this time, New York on 22 April 2016, barely 5 months from the overwhelming success of COP21 where 195 nations successfully negotiated the agreement for the reduction of Climate Change. 174 nations signed this agreement amidst the backdrop of the smiling Secretary General of UN, the beaming Executive Secretary to UNFCCC, the French President and of course, the omnipresence of celebrity Leonardo Di Caprio. Now what?

Poor nations are still without electricity to both built-up as well as rural areas. Donations or lack of donations are still not reaching natural disaster areas that happened more than a year ago. Pollution is rampant.

The much hyped EV, Autonomous Car, Driver-less Car, Sustainable Mobility are more Talk than Walk. UN becomes UM (United Meetings). Zero Carbon Emission is considered Zero Able Mission. China's 50 electric car manufacturers are going nowhere having lost its direction. The only bright spark, a freak pre-sales order of 400,000 electric cars was only because of the marketing genius of, the Bright Spark Houdini himself Elon Musk. The $200 billion pledged by Developed nations, announced during COP21 is just what it is, pledged.

The health of OPEC remains the same, critical but stable in intensive care. As price of oil hovers at a high of $50, Russia sees no reason to meet with Saudi Arabia. The premise is that if the price goes any higher, a deluge of shale production would start bringing the price back down to earth. Russia prefers to leave it to market forces.

Meanwhile Iran is happily increasing production and increasing her rig count, with not a care in the world and minding her own business. Iran also believes that talking is a waste of time. Saudi is going ahead with privatizing Aramco, the proceeds it seems to build solar plants, or is it to utilize a desert not much use for any other activity?

Heavy weight Venezuela with its heavy crude is on the brink of regime change. This is what happens when you cross Uncle Sam, go ask Iran. The Big Guy of Africa, Nigeria, ain't so big today, is finding that its pipelines are being blown up in increasing frequency, finally realizing that this is what you get when you dance with terrorists. Rio, the Capital of Brazil has just declared a State of Emergency caused by falling oil and commodity prices and some say corruption, needs more than a makeover - closer to major surgery. What a sorry state OPEC members are in, what a sorry state oil is in.

Not quite says Exxon Mobil.

Exxon Mobil, the biggest oil company does not believe in Renewable Energy. Exxon Mobil, ever bullish in her core business is tweaking its business model, switching noticeably from one fossil fuel to another fossil fuel. With a Solar Constant of 1350 watt / sq m, Mother Earth is receiving 20,000 times more energy than what is being consumed from all the energy sources. Such an avalanche of energy has churned the world into a recipe for mass extinctions, ice ages, storms, hurricanes long before the use of coal, oil and natural gas. Man survived. Man will adapt to Climate Change, CEO of Exxon Mobil, Rex Tilerson confidently said. With a market capitalization of close to $400 billion, not many people would like to argue with him.

Still, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is relentless in pushing its agenda to reduce Climate Change. Not being able to steamroll a consortium of Oil Majors worth $2 trillion, coal became an easy target. Contributing to 40% of all electricity production coal had the inertia to withstand the pressures from pro-climate change movements until now. Cracks has begun to appear. Coal Power Plant closure, Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), Clean Power Plan triggered the closure of numerous coal mines. The largest private coal company in the world, Peabody Energy filed for bankruptcy on 16 March 2016.

In a well orchestrated manoeuvre, King Coal would step down for King Gas to take over the throne. A tyrant replaces another tyrant. Coal was never meant to be replaced by renewable energy. While ports in the US deny the export of coal, new LNG terminals were given licenses to export natural gas in liquid form. Liquefaction Plants have sprouted from Australia, USA, Middle East, Africa, Canada and Malaysia. In February 2016 Shell completed the takeover of BG, holder of the largest natural gas asset, for $52 billion

Will the Energy play of the big boys make UNFCCC an irrelevant bit player? Was the idea of Zero Carbon Emission properly or insanely thought out?

To Comment or to Like, please go to Linkedin Pulse The author is involved in Hydro Plant, Solar Plant and Electric Vehicle manufacturing. He also cares about alleviating poverty, better healthcare, clean environment and access to Sustainable Energy for all but in particular, the poor.

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